Investment Outlook

Soft landing will support share prices

Summary

The global economy looks set to experience a soft landing, followed by a moderate growth rate – but central bank key interest rate decisions will be crucial to economic performance. We still believe in broad risk diversification, but conditions in the capital market are changing. This may mean that former pacesetters will face challenges to their leadership role.

Nordic equities – Continued consolidation

An eventful stock market year, with both record-setting days and plunging share prices, has left equity indices at about the same levels as in March. We expect continued consolidation around these levels for a while. The focus of attention going forward will be on economic performance and the risk of trade wars. Meanwhile, lower interest rates and a positive corporate earnings trend may benefit cyclically sensitive sectors such as commodities, forest products, industrials and small caps.

Themes in Investment Outlook

Semiconductors, Part 2 – the backbone of digitisation

The semiconductor industry lies at the heart of technological development. In the long term, its earnings growth has outperformed stock market averages in both the Nordics and the US but has also exceeded overall American IT sector growth. We continue to find the sector attractive, especially companies with exposure to AI, electrification and digitisation of vehicles.

Read the article about semiconductors (pdf)

The US elections – an even battle focusing on taxes, tariffs and family policy

The change of Democratic candidate has redrawn the map ahead of the November 5 US presidential election. How will the Democratic agenda change under Kamala Harris? We examine the differences between her policies and those of Republican candidate Donald Trump, and how these policies can be expected to impact the economy and financial markets.

Read the article about the US election (pdf)

Investment Outlook September 2024

Our experts give you our current view on the development of the economy and stock exchanges (12 minutes).

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