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Investment Outlook

Inflation downturn will ease risk picture

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Summary

A brighter international outlook is emerging, especially thanks to the prospect of large declines in inflation. Yet we still expect a mild recession during 2023, with a recovery starting in the second half of the year. Despite prospects of a brighter outlook, because of the impending slowdown in growth and earnings we are maintaining a neutral allocation between asset classes in our portfolios.
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Nordic equities: Cautious optimism

The Stockholm stock exchange has surged 24 per cent since it bottomed out in September, driven mostly by the factors that we identified as positive drivers in November but which could also be glimpsed to some extent as early as September. A normalisation of investor risk appetite from historical extremes in late autumn has also normalised valuations on the Nordic exchanges; the time for stock market bargains is already over.

Our themes

Increased hopes of much lower inflation

After nearly two years of rising and surprisingly high inflation, the prospects of lower inflation are now much better. There are still many question marks as well as growing differences between regions. The clear downturn in inflation in the US, which was the first country to see the upturn, increases the likelihood that inflation will also fall globally.

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Global fragmentation

We see worrying signs that the world is moving clearly towards geoeconomic, geofinancial and geotechnological fragmentation. This implies that the world will be divided into several large rival blocs; in practice the countries making up one bloc will only want economic, financial and technological relations with each other. What consequences will this have? We have also listed a number of companies that will both winners and losers in a new geoclimate.

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Investment Outlook Februari 2023

Our experts give you our current view on the development of the economy and stock exchanges (9 min).

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