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Investment Outlook

Worries fading as double turnaround takes shape

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November 2023 Summary

It looks as if today’s situation, with double braking mechanisms in the form of a cyclical slowdown and a continued fight against inflation accompanied by tight monetary policies, may possibly ease. We are still in a late-cyclical phase, with a predicted soft landing ahead of us. In this phase, risk appetite usually diminishes since earnings are squeezed and the percentage of credit events increases, but the situation becomes more balanced once key rate cuts and growth recovery take shape.
View of Stockholm city

Nordic equities – challenges remain

Rapidly rising interest rates and bond yields have been the biggest cause for concern in the stock market over the past two years. Yields have probably peaked. Inflation has fallen dramatically from its 2022 high, and forward prices indicate that central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, will cut their key interest rates during 2024. The European economy is weak, but leading indicators have probably bottomed out. 

Our themes

GLP-1 is changing the world

GLP-1 medications such as semaglutide and tirzepatide, used for treating overweight and type 2 diabetes, have recently revolutionised health care. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the market with their successful GLP-1 molecules. These drugs are predicted to not only change treatment of overweight and diabetes but also affect our societies through changes in consumption patterns, and they may have a significant economic impact.

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Electricity markets and their price dynamics

Consumers in Scandinavia tend to believe that electricity prices should be stable, and stable at acceptable levels, since we have a supply dominated by hydroelectric, nuclear and wind power, which all have very low production costs. But pricing electricity as a utility was abandoned in 1990, and since then power markets have turned into traded markets. 

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Investment Outlook November 2023

Our experts give you our current view on the development of the economy and stock exchanges (15 min).

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