Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
The decline in 2020 GDP looks set to be less than expected. New fiscal stimulus is on the way, although tensions between the White House and the Senate may limit its scope. The Fed is prepared to increase its bond purchases to fend off any upturn in yields.
Due to increasing COVID-19 cases and new restrictions, GDP will fall again in Q4 and 2021 will start anaemically. Then recovery will gain momentum, aided by fiscal stimulus and exports. The ECB will focus on QE policy, but a key rate cut cannot be ruled out.
The EM countries led by China have recovered, but their 2020 GDP growth has been adjusted lower. The situation is mixed, however: a country’s export structure and fiscal manoeuvring room play a major role in how severely it is impacted by the crisis.
A one-two punch from the pandemic and Brexit is pressuring the British government and central bank to prop up the economy. We expect some form of trade agreement with the European Union, but growth will be slower than in other large economies.
